ORF 245:  Probability and Statistics

---

  

 Instructor. Jianqing Fan, Frederick L. Moore'18 Professor of Finance. Office: E-332 E-quad. Phone: 258-7924. E-mail: jqfan@princeton.edu

Office Hours: Monday: 11:00am -- 11:55am, Wednesday 4:05pm - 5:00pm, or by appointments.

Precept: Monday - Thursday, 7:30pm - 8:20 pm.   The four sessions are identical and students are free to choose one.  The Precept locations are:  Friend 007

Assistants in Instruction (AIs):

• Yang Feng, yangfeng@Princeton.edu,  609-258-4660, Office: E-310,  E-Quad.  Office Hours:  Tuesday, 10:00-12:00
• Yue Niu, yniu@princeton.edu, 609-258-4660. Office: E310, E-Quad. Office Hours: Wednesday: 1:00-3:00om
• Ke Yu, yuke@princeton.edu,  609-258-6890. Office:  E307, E-Quad.  Office Hours:  Thursday, 3:30-5:30pm
• Forrest Zhang, jingjinz@Princeton.edu, 609-258-1779. Office:  E403, E-Quad.    Office Hours:  Monday,  4:00-6:00pm
• Statistics Lab, 609-258-9433

 Text and Reference Books:

• Jay L. Devore (2007). Probability and Statistics for Engineering and the Sciences, 7th edition. Brooks/Cole, Belmont, CA. (Text book where homework is assigned)
• David Freedman, Robert Pisani, Roger Purves (1998). Statistics, 3rd edition. W.W.Norton& Company, New York. (Reference book where extra readings will be assigned)

Syllabus: Course material will be covered the following topics (in order):

1. Overview and descriptive statistics
2. Probability
3. Discrete random variables and probability distributions
4. Continuous random variables and probability distributions
5. Joint probability distributions
6. Statistical estimation for one-sample
7. Tests of hypotheses
8. Inference based on two samples
9. Correlation and Simple linear regression
10. Nonlinear and multiple regression

Computation: It will be very useful to have a pocket calculator with a memory and a square root key and a statistics key. The calculators will be used during the exams. The software package for this class is flexible. It can be either R, S-plus or excel or any other packages. For those who will take ORF 405 (required for ORFE major), you are encouraged to use R, S-plus.

Attendance: Attendance of the class is required. The class covers many conceptual issues and statistical thinking that are not covered in the text book. They will appear in the midterm and final exams.

 Homework: Problems will be assigned on Wednesdays and posted on the web. They will be due in Wednesdays of following weeks (placed in the ``IN-OUT'' box for the course at E-214, E-quad). No late homework will be accepted. Missed homework will receive a grade of zero. The lowest one score will be dropped. The homework will be graded, and each assignment carries equal weight. You are allowed to work with other students on the homework problems, however, verbatim copying of homework is absolutely forbidden. Therefore each student must ultimately produce his or her own homework to be handed in and graded. You are also encouraged to ask the instructor and the AIs for help on homework problems, after you have attempted to solve the problems on your own. Any questions regarding homework grades should first be taken up with the AI; if these questions cannot be resolved with the AI, then feel free to discuss them with the instructor.

Exams: There will be two in-class midterm exams, and a final exam. All exams are required and there will be no make-up exams. Missed exams will receive a grade of zero. All exams are open-book and open-notes. Calculators may be used during the exams.


Schedules and Grading Policy:
Homework (20%)   ..........................................................................................  6:00pm of due dates
Midterm Exam I (15%) .................................................................................... Wednesday, October 17, 2007
Midterm Exam II (15%) ...................................................................................  Friday, November 30, 2007
FINAL EXAM (50%)........................................................................................ 1:30pm, January 24, 2008, Friend Center 101

 

 R or S-Plus labs: The following files intend to help you familiar with the use of S-Plus commands.

 

• Some handouts for basic in R with graphics displays.  They are closely related to the materials taught in the class.
         Handout 1 and Handout 2.
  
• Labs 1-5: Basic skills and their associated data set (Boston housing data).  The materials cover basic skills for S-plus or R. 
  
  
  The following extended skills are not used in the class, but is provided here for your convenience.
  • Extended Skills: ANOVA and their associated data set (labor data).
    
  • Extended Skills: GLIM and their associated data set (burn data). Description of the data set